The Cascade Effect of Kazakhstani’s Internet Shutdown Relating to the Russian-Ukrainian War

By:  Sarish Siddiqui

Due to the rising costs of low carbon fuel, the Kazakhstani people actively vocalized their frustrations through protests, and consequently, their government leaders shut off Internet connection.  Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, the President of Kazakhstan declared a two-week state of emergency after nationwide protests erupted over rising fuel prices.  The government banned access to social network sites, messaging services, payment apps, and point-of-sale machines used for debit cards.  Despite these efforts, the protesters masked their locations to overcome these obstacles.  In response, the governmental authorities shut down almost all connectivity in the country.  Many believe the chaos in Kazakhstan foreshadowed the chaos that unfolded in Ukraine, where the Russian military targeted the Internet too.

Since the Russo-Ukrainian War, Ukraine’s major cities remain connected to the Internet.  Some mobile networks have struggled and there have been broadband outages in areas with heavy fighting.  Due to Ukraine’s diverse Internet infrastructure, it is difficult to switch off the country and there is no centralized kill switch.  The possibility of turning off Ukraine’s internet would require the physical entrance of Internet exchange points and data centers, which cannot be done remotely through severing connections with Russia.  Russia could shut down the Internet in Ukraine by ordering licensed Internet service providers and phone networks to switch off their networks or risk having their right to operate in the country withdrawn.  An invading force would face the difficulty of having to shut down a decentralized commercial telecoms infrastructure, especially in a situation where Internet service providers and mobile networks refuse to cooperate.

Kazakhstan has some of the largest oil fields on the planet and more than 40% of the world’s production of uranium. Although Kazakhstan is viewed as one of the most successful post-Soviet states, there are major socio-economic disparities that have heightened throughout the Covid-19 pandemic.  The country’s wealthiest individuals live lavish lifestyles, while many others are barely surviving on their skimpy salaries and can only vocalize their frustrations with governmental corruption.

In early January, the streets of the Almaty, Kazakhstan filled with young men posing on social media with riot shields and helmets. These men looted stores and set cars on fire as they were in motion.  By the morning, the commercial banks were closed and the Internet was completely shut down, ultimately, disrupting the basic infrastructure of society.  President Tokayev declared that Kazakhstan was under attack and requested Russia to intervene under NATO.  In the Kazakhstani crisis, Russia’s military alliance created a “temporary peacekeeping mission” aimed at protecting government buildings and military materials.  This was the first time in the history of their alliance that Russia’s NATO protection clause was invoked.  There were widespread fatalities, where up to 400 people had to be hospitalized after authorities disarmed individuals who stormed the government buildings and police district offices.

In addition to the Kazakhstani crisis, last month, two of the Ukrainian government’s bank websites were attacked and taken offline due to a series of denial-of-service attacks. The Internet service outages were the result of Russia cyber attacking Ukrainian banks.  In addition to bank closures and Internet shutdowns, the telephone system was shut off periodically.  Kazakhstani schools extended winter breaks and flights in and out of major cities were suspended.

Control of the Internet has become an increasing part of many modern conflicts. The Internet is vital for social, economic, and political purposes. Global leaders have shut down energy sources, water, and supply lines from their citizens.  Based on Access Now’s annual report, there were at least 155 Internet shutdowns across 29 countries in 2020.

The reason we should care about the Kazakhstani crisis is that any drop in oil output from Kazakhstan, which produces two percent of the world’s supply, would be felt around the world. Kazakhstan is at the center of Western energy investment.  Chevron and Exxon Mobil, two of America’s largest oil companies are in the process of a $37 billion expansion in Tengiz fields. These fields not only help make this country a substantial oil producer but are also a crucial source of revenue for the Kazakh government.  The continuation of the Kazakh crisis would create widespread disorder for its prospects of investment and credit.

One of the main reasons Kazakhstan matters to the United States is because it has become a significant energy producer that Exxon Mobil and Chevron heavily rely on.  Although it has close relations with Russia, the Kazakh government maintains close relations with the United States, with its significant oil investments, which hopefully counterbalance Russia’s influence. Kazakhstan is a landlocked country between Russia and China. The civil unrest in Kazakhstan matters because the country has been viewed as economically stable in an unstable region.  Also, the protests are important because Kazakhstan is aligned with Russia, whose president, Vladimir Putin, views the country as Russia’s alter ego in terms of its economic and political systems.  It is important to acknowledge that former Soviet Union countries are also watching the protests, and there is a possibility that the Kazakhstan crisis could mobilize opposition forces elsewhere.

Our Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken has reiterated that the United States fully supported Kazakhstan’s constitutional institutions and media freedom advocating for a peaceful resolution to the crisis.  In addition, he claimed the United States would keep a close eye out for human rights violations and wanted the government to restore Internet service in Kazakhstan.  How do ordinary people prevent their governments from shutting down Internet services? What instruments or solutions are at their disposal? Is technology the only solution?

Governments should not be able to easily shut down the Internet without the international community’s knowledge.  Organizations such as Access Now, Censored Planet, and Open Observatory of Network Interference (“OONI”) have made information available to the public to moderate the influence of these shutdowns.  Some potential technological solutions for reducing Internet shutdowns include mesh networks, virtual private networks (“VPNs”), and shared proxy servers that can be used to help individuals connect to the Internet during shutdowns. Technology is not the only solution though.  Political action through grassroots efforts, such as the #KeepItOn Movement, has provided advocacy, technical, and legal intervention to prevent future shutdowns.  A last solution is for democratic governments to unite together to fund efforts in developing technical or policy-related responses.  There is strength in global solidarity. The act of working together as a united front will help us build a better world that prioritizes people’s safety and human rights.

Student Bio: Sarish Siddiqui is a second-year law student at Suffolk University Law School. She serves as a Staff Member on the Journal of High Technology Law and Director of Fundraising of the Business Law Association. Sarish obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Law & Financial Accounting from the University of Massachusetts Amherst.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog are the views of the author alone and do not represent the views of JHTL or Suffolk University Law School.

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