Article and photo by Jackson Chadwick | Photo design by Driena Muca
Each election year, we typically hear that this election is the most important ever. And that is for a good reason. In modern American history, nearly every election year has either been so important or historic that it changed the course of U.S. politics.
Take 1994, for example. Newt Gingrich’s “Contract with America” helped propel him to the Speakership and lead Republicans to their first House majority in over 40 years. It’s now deemed as the Republican Revolution of ‘94.
Or in 2006, when Democrats rode a wave of anti-war sentiment and grasped control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, propelling Nancy Pelosi to the Speaker’s Chair. Their gains were expanded on in 2008 alongside the election of Barack Obama, the nation’s first African-American President.
In 2010 (similarly to 1994), Tea Party Republicans dominated elections across the country — regaining the House majority, picking up governorships, and decreasing Democrats’ majority in the Senate.
2014 and 2018 were important, too. What do all of these elections have in common? They were all midterms, all elections that happened in between presidential contests. And 2022 will be no different. Midterms are often framed as a “referendum” on the sitting President and their party, meaning that next year, the election will be a referendum on President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party.
Behind all the drama and mayhem that will ensue next year is the drama and mayhem that’s already happening. Across the country, states are in the process of redistricting (redrawing) congressional and state legislative district lines based on 2020 Census data. Control of this process varies from state to state. But with Democrats’ narrow five-seat House majority, each congressional district’s political composition will be pivotal in determining control of the House in 2022.
While this article series will focus on congressional redistricting, it’s equally important to note that the redistricting of state legislative districts is already underway, including in Massachusetts.
A general overview
Due to population shifts, some states are losing congressional seats, while several others are gaining them. For instance, slow population growth in the Northeast and Upper Midwest has resulted in Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New York losing one congressional seat each. On the contrary, rising population growth in Texas, Florida, and North Carolina means Texas will gain two seats while Florida and North Carolina will each get an additional one. A handful of other states are losing and gaining seats.
As it stands, Republicans fully control redistricting in many states, such as Florida, Georgia, Texas, and Ohio. Democrats fully control redistricting in states like Illinois, Oregon, Maryland, and Massachusetts. But about 40 percent of states have some form of divided control, whether it be a Democratic legislature with a Republican governor (or vice-versa) or an independent redistricting commission that proposes new maps to the state legislature. California, New York, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are among the 40 percent.
What’s happened so far?
So far, Oregon, Indiana, Nebraska, and Maine have passed new congressional maps. Let’s look at each state individually, starting with Oregon. All screenshots are courtesy of 538’s interactive redistricting tracker.
Oregon
Of the aforementioned states, Oregon is arguably the most important of the four. Democrats fully control the redistricting process here and passed a new map on September 27th. Of the current five seats, two are solidly Democratic (as seen in blue), one is solidly Republican (as seen in red), and the remaining two are tossups (as shaded in grey).
The new map changes the political composition of Oregon’s congressional delegation. In addition to the two Portland-area Democratic seats, Oregon will now gain another (likely) Democratic seat which draws in more Portland suburbs and stretches down to Salem. The western coast seat (of which Eugene is a part) becomes bluer. And while the grey-shaded fifth congressional district is a tossup, it did vote for Biden in 2020, providing some breathing room for Democrats.
For both Democratic Reps. Peter DeFazio and Kurt Schrader, this new map is good news. If both decide to run again, DeFazio would run in the same fourth district, while Schrader would run in the new sixth district. And, Republican Cliff Bentz’s ruby red district becomes even redder, as it goes from R + 19 to R + 28.
Winner: The Democrats
Indiana
Republicans control the redistricting process here, and their new map shores up an important freshman incumbent.
The old map featured six safe Republican seats, one likely Republican seat, one likely Democratic seat, and one safe Democratic seat. Of the nine total, the two most swingy were freshmen Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan’s first district (pictured in the lighter blue) and Republican Rep. Victoria Spartz’s fifth district (pictured in the lighter red).
The new map really only makes one big adjustment: it shores up Spartz. Under the current lines, Spartz’s district includes Democratic-trending suburban Indianapolis. Under the new map, these suburbs are traded out for rural Republican areas. More Indianapolis suburbs are now packed into Rep. Andre Carson’s already safe Democratic seventh district, making it even bluer.
It’s also worth noting that Rep. Mvran’s Democratic-leaning seat remains that way under the new map; Republicans could have axed him from winning in 2022 but chose not to and created a safer fifth district instead.
Winner: The Republicans (and Rep. Mvran)
Nebraska
Like Indiana, Republicans had a leg up in the redistricting process here. Under current congressional lines, Republicans control all three seats. The first and third districts are solidly Republican, while the Omaha-based second district is a tossup; this district voted for Biden in 2020 while re-electing the Republican incumbent, Don Bacon, to Congress.
Under the new map, the swingy second district axes some Democratic suburbs for more traditionally Republican areas to the west of Omaha. The district can be labeled as either a tossup or lean Republican. This move will help Rep. Bacon in 2022 if he decides to run again.
The super-red third district largely remains the same, while the first district becomes about four points more Democratic-friendly. Nonetheless, the second district will likely be the only competitive one contested next fall. It’s also worth mentioning that first district Republican Rep. Fortenberry had been indicted on counts of concealing information and lying to the FBI. Just this week, he resigned his position as the top-ranking Republican on the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Agriculture.
Winner: Rep. Don Bacon
Maine
Last but not least is the state of Maine. Both state Democrats and Republicans had initially proposed separate congressional maps. To hash out differences, a commission drew a new map to help appease both parties.
The current map has one solidly Democratic seat and one likely Republican seat. The first district, represented by Democrat Chellie Pingree is shaded in blue, while the second district, represented by Democrat Jared Golden is shaded in red. Golden is easily one of the top ten most vulnerable House incumbents next year.
Under the new lines, Pingree’s district moves one point more Republican, while Golden’s district moves one point more Democratic. This is mainly because the state capital of Augusta is moved from the first district and into the second.
Winner: Rep. Golden
What happens next?
Upon more states approving their congressional maps, the redistricting series will expand to reflect the continuing political chaos across the country. Just last week, Illinois Democrats released their gerrymander of congressional districts, which could knock off two Republican House incumbents. Likewise in Texas, Republicans released drafts of their new gerrymander, which would shore up multiple of their incumbents and significantly reduce the number of competitive seats.
At the latest, redistricting won’t end until next spring, so stay along for the ride.