By Jackson Chadwick | “Favored to win” by nordique is licensed under CC BY 2.0
With only several months to go until Election Day, both major parties are amping up fundraising, outreach, and recruitment efforts. This year, control of the Presidency, Senate, and House of Representatives will be decided. Democrats are hoping to clean house with a trifecta in government, while Republicans are on the defense, trying to maintain control of the Senate while also re-electing President Trump to a second term in office.
Amid social unrest following the death of George Floyd, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the resulting economic recession, the Trump administration has been criticized by national Democratic leaders, such as former Vice President (and presidential contender) Joe Biden and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Polling finds that a majority of Americans do not trust or approve of the administration’s handling of major issues.
Several weeks ago, the Trump campaign filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court of Wisconsin against Priorities USA, a major Democratic Super PAC supporting Biden’s campaign. Trump’s campaign alleges that Priorities USA purposely manipulated audio recordings of President Trump to make it appear as if the President called the coronavirus a hoax. Factcheck.org, a nonprofit project of The Annenberg Public Policy Center, found Priorities USA’s ad to be misleading, saying:
“Trump did use the word ‘hoax’ but his full comments, and subsequent explanation, make clear he was talking about Democratic attacks on his administration’s handling of the outbreak, not the virus itself.
Nonetheless, the Trump administration’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic has not met voters with ease. A recent Washington Post/ABC News poll found that only 38% of Americans approve of the President’s handling of the crisis; 60% said they disapprove.
Amongst the data, which dates back to March, the percentage of respondents who favor the President’s handling of the pandemic has dwindled, while those who do not favor his handling of the pandemic has steadily increased.
Many–pundits and voters alike–have pointed to polling as signs of hope, dismay, and caution. Recent polling shows Biden with sizable leads in the popular vote against Trump; he is also polling well in swing states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Arizona. While some see that as a sign of hope, others are worried. Even amidst Biden’s polling strength, Democrats urge their base not to be complacent. Major Democratic donor and DNC member Robert Zimmerman writes:
“One of the great strengths Democrats bring to 2020 is that we’re not suffering from overconfidence,” compared to 2016, when many in the party downplayed Trump’s winning chances.
Some pundits argue that 2020 is nothing like 2016, and suggest that the public should believe the polls. Polling strategist Stanley Greenberg argues that the political landscape has drastically changed over the past four years and that Biden is not running the same race as Secretary Clinton did:
“So one reason to trust my polls more now than in 2016 is this change: Four years ago, those without a four-year degree made up 48 percent of my survey respondents; today they account for 60 percent. Whites without a college degree were 33 percent of my surveys; today they are 43 percent. That is a huge change—an elixir against being deceived again. The pain of Trump’s victory and disastrous presidency has concentrated the minds of campaign staff and the polling profession in ways that give me confidence that Biden’s lead in the polls is real.
In an interview with David Paleologos, the Director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, the Director emphasized the importance of publicly conducted polls, noting the differences of “good” and “bad” polls:
“It’s all about the proportions of the population, and not missing any proportions” in the electorate. Paleologos notes stark contrasts between 2016 and 2020, implying that the two election years are not the same. He explains that in 2016, while national polls showed Secretary Clinton winning the national popular vote ended up being right, the state polls, however, were wrong in the last couple of weeks before the election.
“Top public pollsters” such as Marist, Quinnipiac, and Suffolk didn’t poll Democratic “blue wall” states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan just days before the election. Instead, only internal polls from the Democratic and Republican campaigns were conducted.
“You have to trust the research that is public, and not partisan. We have to ask questions that are research-based and don’t come from the RNC or DNC. A poll is just a snapshot in time. Our job is to just present the findings,” Paleologos said.
The Suffolk University Political Research Center partners with media organizations across the country in numerous states, such as Nevada, Florida, Utah, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona. The Research Center’s rating among polling aggregates, such as Nate Silver’s 538, has continued to increase over the years; as of the publication of this article, 538 gives Suffolk an “A” rating.
Paleologos emphasized that while Biden may seem to have the election in the bag today, a lot can change just within a matter of weeks or days:
“If the election were today, Biden would win,” according to the polls. “We’re in July, and a lot can happen” between now and November. “There are a lot of unknowns. There’s also speculation over the Vice President’s pick of his running mate. Oftentimes, presidential contenders don’t pick their favorites . . . there’s a benefit of picking someone new, someone a little bit different,” and that can very well affect a candidate’s polling average.
Just several months before a historic election, nothing is certain, though, to some, it may seem that way. Public polling shows Biden winning the national popular vote, while also leading Trump in crucial battleground states. But as Director Paleologos said, a poll is just a “snapshot in time,” and everything could change within a week.