By Jackson Chadwick | Photo design by Driena Muca
So far in our redistricting series, we’ve covered the states of Oregon, Indiana, Nebraska, Maine, Texas, West Virginia, Colorado, Alabama, North Carolina, and Iowa. Today, we’re going to cover a whole lot more.
Since this series’ last publication, 14 states have enacted new congressional lines, including California, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio. Like we’ve already seen, the number of competitive House seats has fallen, and the number of seats firmly in the Democratic and Republican columns has increased.
In Ohio, for example, Republicans axed two Democratic-leaning states. In New Mexico, Democrats also provided an opportunity to unseat a Republican incumbent by making her district more Democratic-leaning. But in Ohio, the state Supreme Court recently struck down the Republican-passed congressional plan, citing issues of unnecessary county splits and the map (as a whole) “unduly” favoring Republicans. In the new map, Republicans would have likely won 13 of the 15 (or ~ 86% of) congressional districts despite former President Trump winning the state with 53% of the vote in 2020. Now, the Ohio Legislature is tasked with drawing new lines, again.
Ohio isn’t the only state where congressional maps are being contested. New lines in Alabama, North Carolina, Georgia, and New Jersey are in the process of litigation.
Below is a detailed synopsis of what new congressional lines look like in 13 states, beginning with our beloved Massachusetts.
Note: Screenshots are courtesy of FiveThirtyEight’s interactive national redistricting tracker.
Massachusetts
It comes as no surprise that Massachusetts will almost certainly send 9 Democrats to Congress this decade, as they did last. The map used between 2012-2022 featured 9 solidly Democratic districts, as seen below.
The new map doesn’t look that much different. There are still 9 solidly blue seats, but a couple of changes. For one, Bill Keating’s 9th district loses its portion of Fall River to Jake Auchincloss’ 4th district; Auchincloss will now represent the entire city of Fall River.
In the 1st district, Richard Neal picks up more towns from the central part of the state, while Jim McGovern’s 2nd district picks up several western towns and some old turf from Auchincloss and 5th district Rep. Katherine Clark.
New Jersey
The congressional map in place for the past decade featured a number of competitive districts, including in the central part of the state as well as in and around suburban Bergen, Morris, and Somerset counties, areas that swung towards Democrats in recent years.
As seen below, districts 5, 11, and 7 on the past congressional map were highly competitive (shaded in grey).
The new map, however, axes two of those competitive seats and turns them into Democratic-leaning ones (5th and 11th). The 7th district, represented by Democrat Tom Malinowski, becomes slightly more Republican, increasing the chances of a Republican flipping it in November’s election.
Another notable district is the 3rd, represented by Democrat Andy Kim. The old third district spanned from the suburbs of Philadelphia and Trenton all the way to Toms River on the coastline. Under the new lines, Kim will no longer represent any of coastal New Jersey. Instead, his district takes on more suburbs outside Trenton, thus making this district more Democratic-leaning.
Maryland
Next up is Maryland. Over the last decade, Democrats have maintained a 7-1 advantage in the state’s House delegation. Under the new map, that might change, however.
The state’s old map featured 1 solidly Republican seat and 7 solidly Democratic seats. The gerrymandered map includes rather messy, and partially indistinguishable lines.
The new map is relatively cleaner, and district lines are easier to make out. Under this map, there will still be 7 Democratic seats, but several have become less-Democratic. This is because Maryland Democrats decided to target Rep. Andy Harris, a Republican from the 1st district. By removing rural Republican parts of the 1st and trading them in for suburban Democratic areas around Annapolis and Columbia, the partisan lean of Harris’ district dropped from R + 28 to R + 8, meaning his seat is 20 points less Democratic according to FiveThirtyEight’s calculations.
So, some Democrats like Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger and Rep. John Sarbanes will now represent less Democratic-leaning seats. It’s worth mentioning that these seats will most likely still be won by Democrats. And in what could be a good Republican midterm, Harris has a solid shot at holding on.
Virginia
Virginia has quickly trended blue, but its new congressional districts reflect a more even playing field.
Under the old lines, there were 5 Democratic districts, 5 Republican districts, and one highly competitive tossup district. Not only do Democrats represent the tossup district, but also a Republican-leaning district stretching from suburban Richmond up towards Fredericksburg. Democrats currently hold a 7-4 advantage in the state’s House delegation.
Virginia is one of several states that created a bipartisan redistricting commission to draw new congressional lines. However, the Virginia commission failed to submit a new map draft by the deadline, therefore, responsibility shifted to the state Supreme Court.
The new map similarly creates 5 solid or likely Democratic districts, 5 solid or likely Republican districts, and one tossup competitive district. Under the new lines, the 7th district becomes more competitive while the 2nd district becomes slightly more Republican. This means that 7th district Democrat Abigail Spanberger might have an easier time winning reelection (pending a potential primary challenge) than Democrat Elaine Luria, whose 2nd district picked up more Republican territory.
Georgia
Georgia, another state that has trended blue in recent years, has a new congressional map that is already under litigation.
In the current session of Congress, Democrats represent 6 seats while Republicans represent 8 seats from Georgia. Two suburban seats, the 6th, and 7th flipped to Democrats in the 2018 and 2020 House elections, respectively. While those seats are currently represented by Democrats, their partisan leanings are only slightly Democratic and Republican, respectively.
Because Republicans controlled the redistricting process in Georgia, they decided to shift the 6th district from a Democratic-leaning one to a solidly Republican one. They also increased the Democratic partisan lean of the neighboring 7th district from R + 4 to D + 16. Because Democrat Lucy McBath’s 6th district became much redder, she will primary freshman Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux in the new safe Democratic 7th district.
The new map also makes southwestern Georgia Democrat Sanford Bishop’s seat slightly less safe. The partisan lean of his 2nd district decreased by 2 points, from D + 6 to D + 4. Bishop has racked up impressive margins in the 2nd, though, winning most recently by 20 percentage points and overperforming Biden. The most likely scenario for this November’s midterm is that Democrats will end up with 5 seats, and Republicans with 9 in the state delegation.
Arkansas
The old Arkansas map featured 4 Republican districts — 3 solidly red, and 1 leaning red.
Republican Governor Asa Hutchinson allowed new congressional lines to become law without his signature.
With the new map in effect for next year, there is only one big change. The 2nd district, represented by Republican French Hill, moves three points more Republican. This district includes Little Rock and the surrounding suburbs. This move will likely shore up Hill ahead of next year’s election. He previously beat Democratic challengers in 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2020. In a good Republican year, this district should comfortably be in Republican hands.
Illinois
Illinois is one of several northeast and midwest states that lost a congressional seat due to low population growth.
Democrats currently comprise a majority of the congressional delegation but several represent competitive seats — the 17th in Western Illinois, and the 14th and 6th districts in Chicagoland. The state’s most vulnerable district for Republicans is the 13th, stretching from suburban St. Louis to the state capital of Springfield and east to the college town of Champaign.
Illinois Democrats used the lost congressional seat to their advantage by automatically eliminating Republican Rep. Darin LaHood’s rural 18th district. LaHood was merged into the 16th district with Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger. Luckily for LaHood, Kinzinger isn’t running for re-election (Kinzinger was one of ten House Republicans to impeach Trump following the January 6th insurrection).
Democrats also merged two more Republicans together — Reps. Rodney Davis and freshman Mary Miller. In southern Illinois’s 12th district, Republican Rep. Mike Bost will avoid a primary challenge. So, the number of safe Republican seats in Illinois dropped from 5 to 3.
By merging incumbent Republicans against each other, Democrats were able to shore up some of their own members. For one, the 17th district becomes slightly more Democratic, although still competitive and entirely winnable for either party in November (incumbent Democrat Cheri Bustos decided not to run for reelection).
Similarly, the new 13th district becomes more Democratic-leaning but could still be competitive in November. With Rodney Davis now running in the new 15th district, the 13th district is now open.
Chicagoland Democrat Lauren Underwood also gets a safer seat in the 14th district, but at the expense of fellow Democrats like Bill Foster and Raja Krishnamoorthi.
An interesting primary fight is also emerging in the new, Democratic-leaning 6th district, where Democratic incumbents Marie Newman and Sean Casten are challenging each other.
Michigan
To Michigan, we go, where an independent redistricting commission arguably created one of the most competitive maps we’ve seen thus far.
The state’s old map featured 4 Democratic seats, two toss-up seats, and 8 Republican seats. As of this Congress, Democrats currently represent both tossup seats and one of the Republican-leaning seats.
Like Illinois, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, Michigan has also lost a congressional seat due to slow population growth relative to the rest of the nation. This loss has forced a primary challenge between Republican incumbents Bill Huizenga and Fred Upton (Upton, like Kinzinger, was one of ten House Republicans to impeach Trump in 2021).
The only other big danger for Michigan Republicans is in the 3rd district, where freshman Rep. Peter Meijer gets a more Democratic-leaning seat. But in what could be a good midterm for Republicans, Meijer still has the advantage.
There will also be a primary fight between two Democrats: Haley Stevens and Andy Levin in the newly created 11th district. Regardless of who wins, the 11th district will almost certainly be retained by the Democrats.
Republicans have big pickup opportunities in the new 7th, 8th, and 10th districts. While Democrat Elissa Slotkin is running for reelection in the slightly less-Republican 7th district, she is still quite vulnerable. And the same goes for longtime Democrat Dan Kildee in the 8th district, whose district becomes slightly more Republican.
Perhaps the easier pickup opportunity for Republicans is in the new 10th district, where Republican John James might be eyeing a run for Congress (James previously lost to Democrats in the 2018 and 2020 Senate elections).
New Mexico
New Mexico Democrats took a rather big risk, and whether it pays off in November remains to be seen.
Currently, there are two pretty safe Democratic districts and one pretty safe Republican district.
But since Democrats controlled redistricting here, they decided to target freshman Republican Yvette Herrell in the southern 2nd district. The new map makes 3rd district Democratic freshman Teresa Leger Fernandez more susceptible in the November election. Fellow Democratic freshman Melanie Stansbury in the 1st district still has a rather safe seat, but it is slightly more Republican than before.
The changes in partisanship in the 1st and 3rd district were made in an attempt to make Herrell much more vulnerable in the 2nd district. Her district’s partisan lean moves 18 points leftward under the new map, as it takes in Democratic neighborhoods in western parts of Albuquerque.
But, as we’ve seen in other states, the new 2nd district in New Mexico is still winnable for Republicans. So while the risk Democrats took may not pay off this year, it could pay off in future elections this decade.