By Jackson Chadwick (AP Photo/John Bazemore)
Just several months ago, over two dozen Democrats were running for President. Today, that number stands at 12. Last week, Sen. Cory Booker (NJ) dropped out of the race, partly because of financial constraints but also a lack of momentum in the polls. One of his closest colleagues in the Senate, Kamala Harris (CA), suspended her campaign several weeks prior due to similar reasons.
After numerous campaign suspensions, the race to become the Democratic nominee is still largely volatile. Frontrunners former Vice President Joe Biden (DE), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (MA), Sen. Bernie Sanders (VT), and former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg (whose term expired earlier this month) are making their final case to voters in Iowa, ahead of the state’s caucus on February 3rd. Some other candidates have recently made the debate stage, including Sen. Amy Klobuchar (MN), but polling results show little growth in overall performance in key states such as Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.
Uncertainty among voters is typical in Iowa before to a statewide caucus. A recent Des Moines Register poll found that only 40% of likely caucus-goers knew of the candidate they’d be supporting. But, 45% of respondents said they could still be persuaded by another candidate and therefore support someone else. 13% of respondents did not have a first choice.
Unlike previous years, the Democratic “party will report the raw vote count for each candidate” in Iowa. Additionally, candidates must win 15% to be apportioned delegates. These new rules reflect changes made after 2016, when former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton narrowly won Iowa, only to lose New Hampshire to Bernie Sanders shortly after.
Both Clinton and Sanders won various rural and urban counties in Iowa. In the GOP Caucus, Sen. Ted Cruz won narrowly over the other candidates, including then-candidate Donald Trump. But in November of 2016, then-nominee Trump won Iowa on election night carrying 51.1% of the vote to Clinton’s 41.7%. Clinton won just 6 counties compared to former President Barack Obama’s 2012 statewide win in which he carried over 30 counties.
Like Iowa, states such as Ohio and Wisconsin are trending away from the Democrats. Traditionally Republican states, including Arizona, Georgia, and Texas are becoming far more competitive, and have been areas where Democrats have picked up seats in the House of Representatives and state legislative chambers in recent years.
Shifting coalitions and demographics suggest a similar, but different battleground field in 2020 compared to 2012 or prior. Republicans are vying to strengthen their coalition of voters which handed Trump victory in 2016. In Ohio, Trump won the state’s 18 highly fought for electoral votes; he won with 51.3% compared to Clinton’s 43.2%, the worst performance for a Democratic nominee in Ohio since before 2000.
Iowa is the beginning of what will surely be a momentous Democratic primary, and the results could provide further insight into which candidates will persevere in different areas of the country, and clinch key voters.