Let me begin with a disclaimer. I know very little about Egypt, and even less about Tunisia, Jordan, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia. What I do know something about is the United States and its role in the world; or rather, its role as that role is perceived by our leaders of both major parties.
To understand that role, we have to consider a puzzle: at a time when it is glaringly obvious to everyone that the people of Egypt want the immediate departure from office of not only President Mubarak, but all his friends, relatives, and associates – why has the US government been so reluctant to endorse those people’s right to have a government of their own choosing?
For example, why did Vice President Biden, asked late last week by Jim Lehrer of NewsHour if it was time for Mubarak to go reply “No?” Why did the White House make it known midday on February 1 that a special envoy had been sent to advise Mubarak to leave only after the next election? It was only late on the same day that President Obama finally said, vaguely, that the transition to democracy should “begin now.” (See the Feb. 2 New York Times for a summary of these developments.
The answer, sadly, is that American foreign policy is not based on American principles. Is is based on interests, but not American interests – that is, not the interests of the people of America – but on the interests of the corporate elite, the multi-billionaires who have been enriching themselves at our expense for the past 30 years. (Before that, too, but with more resistance from government and the labor movement.) What those interess want is not freedom and democracy for the people of Egypt (or the people of Tunisia, the people of Yemen, the people of Jordan, or for that matter the people of Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, or anywhere else – and certainly not for the people of Saudi Arabia or the Gulf States!) What they want is the freedom for themselves to buy, sell, invest, and reap profits anywhere in the world. Mubarak has given them that in Egypt, and impoverished a large proportion of the Egyptian people as a result. So the US is using delaying tactics, hoping that they can keep Mubarak in place until they have assured themselves that his replacement will follow similar policies.
Personally, I think they are going to fail. People Power is too much for them. I’ll go out on a limb and predict that the movement will win in Egypt and go on to inspire similar protests elsewhere in the region. (For an excellent analysis of how protests inspire each other, see George Katsiaficas’s book about the “eros effect,” The Imagination of the New Left: a Global Analysis of 1968.)
It’s important to understand that, given these motivations, there is no constructive positive role for the US government to play. What it should do is negative: condemn the use of violence by Mubarak, and suspend military aid to Egypt. If we demand that, we can help free up the space for the people of Egypt to determine their own future.
p.s. As I said at the start, I don’t know much about Egypt. For an analysis from those who do, see the excellent reports from MERIP, the Middle East Research and Information Project.