In the 2016 Presidential election, nearly one of four votes were cast by-mail and 99% of those voters returned their ballots, according to the U.S. Election Assistance Commission.[i] Voting-by-mail was such a common occurrence during the election in 2016 that even President Trump chose to cast his ballot by-mail, as did various Trump staffers.[ii] How did voting-by-mail become a highly contested, partisan issue in the last few months? We are facing a pandemic that is unprecedented and in this new age of social distancing, voting-by-mail would be a logical course of action, but the idea is driving a wedge deeper into the partisan divide.
One reason for this seems to stem from the falsely perpetuated notion that voting-by-mail is more susceptible to voter fraud than in-person-voting. NPR reported that, “more than 250 million ballots have been cast by mail nationwide, while there have been just 143 criminal convictions for election fraud related to mail ballots…or a fraud rate of 0.00006%.”.[iii] It would be easy to assume that the empirical evidence would be enough to ease the minds of voters, but the increased divisiveness between Republican and Democrats comes from more politically driven ideologies.
Figure 1 (@realdonaldtrump) 26 May 2020. 8:17AM. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1265255835124539392?s=20 Tweet.
Figure 2 (@realdonaldtrump) 26 May 2020. 8:17AM. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1265255845358645254?s=20 Tweet.
In recent months, President Donald Trump has publicly said that he is not a supporter of voting-by-mail. He has recently tweeted false claims regarding voting-by-mail. Some feel that this attack on voting-by-mail stems from the Republican party being fearful that expanding voting-by-mail could give democrats the upper hand in the upcoming election, but there is no evidence that one party would benefit. In fact, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, analyzed voting trends from 1996-2018 regarding voting-by-mail. They found that, “vote-by-mail does not appear to affect either party’s share of turnout”.[iv] Even with this information, some republican voters are quick to dismiss the idea of voting-by-mail, even during a global pandemic.
The debate on whether to expand mail-in-voting for the upcoming elections, quickly became a partisan issue in recent months. Additionally, even with evidence showing that voting-by-mail does not relate to increased voter fraud and does not give any advantage to a single party, we are still engaging in an ongoing conversation surrounding the legitimacy and security of the practice. It is too early to tell how this increased partisanship, along with an ever-challenging pandemic, will affect voter turn-out in the upcoming 2020 Presidential election. But, one thing is for certain, it is an important conversation to be had, and one that could impact how we conduct elections in the future.
[i] Hall, Andrew, and Jennifer Wu. “The Neutral Partisan Effects of Vote-by-Mail: Evidence From County-Level Roll-Outs.” Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, Apr. 2020, siepr.stanford.edu/research/publications/neutral-partisan-effects-vote-mail-evidence-county-level-roll-outs.
[ii] Stieb, Matt. “Trump Staffers Who Voted By Mail, a Process He Calls ‘Rigged’.” New York Magazine, 22 June 2020, nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/06/every-trump-ally-who-has-voted-by-mail-list.html.
[iii] Parks, Miles. “Why Is Voting By Mail (Suddenly) Controversial? Here’s What You Need To Know.” NPR, NPR, 4 June 2020, www.npr.org/2020/06/04/864899178/why-is-voting-by-mail-suddenly-controversial-heres-what-you-need-to-know#fraud.
[iv] “Newly Released 2016 Election Administration and Voting Survey Provides Snapshot of Nation’s Voter Turnout Registration Trends Voting Systems.” U.S. Election Assistance Commission, 29 June 2017, www.eac.gov/news/2017/06/29/newly-released-2016-election-administration-and-voting-survey-provides-snapshot.
With the elections coming up in November, it is not a surprise to see President Trump to discredit mail-in ballots as in essence fraudulent. However, that doesn’t mean the claims are not dangerous to our democracy. In a recent tweet, Trump claimed that with mail in voting, “2020 will be the most inaccurate and fraudulent election in history.” In the same tweet he suggested delaying the elections until we can vote in person. These recent claims are frightening, especially when you take into account the voting suppression that recently occurred in Georgia in the past few months. All the steps President Trump’s taking ultimately have the goal of getting him reelected, and the only way he knows he can achieve this is by silencing the voices of those who oppose him.
Your article was very articulate, concise, and intriguing. I liked how you included specific sources, including the President’s tweets. In recent statements, President Trump hinted at the idea of postponing the election to allow for in person voting and to prevent voter fraud. His concerns about voter fraud seem centered around the Democratic party, even though there is seemingly no evidence to support the claim that Democrats commit more voter fraud than Republicans. He later backed down these comments, but many were rightfully concerned. Many worry that President Trump’s divisive language and apprehension towards mail-in voting is leading up to him resisting leaving office if voted out in this upcoming election. Do you think there is any reality to these worries? Personally, I think President Trump should be more focused on the safety and wellbeing of American citizens rather than election results. Time will tell on the outcome of this election, but I hope President Trump’s victory or defeat is not marked by countless needless deaths from poorly operated in person voting.
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