A Tale of Two States
Much has been made recently on how some states have contained their Coronavirus outbreaks, while others have seen spikes. Most of these spikes are attributed to poor decisions by leadership around their re-opening policy and use of masks. In addition, statistics indicate accelerated re-opening plans have backfired, with increasing cases and deaths from relaxed protocols and pullbacks on re-opening plans. Below is a comparison of Massachusetts and Texas, states with differing political backgrounds, various shutdown and reopening methods. I’ve provided background and key points as to why Massachusetts’ leadership decisions appear to contain the virus better than Texas.
National Political Background: According to https://www.270towin.com/states/,
in Presidential elections since 1972, Texas has voted Republican in 11 of 12 times and Massachusetts has voted Democratic 10 of 12 times. In the US senate since then, only 21 percent of possible years (20 of 96 years) were served by democrats in Texas. In Massachusetts, under nine percent, (9 of 96 years) were served by Republicans. It’s a fair conclusion that, nationally, recent history shows Texas leans red, while Massachusetts leans blue.
Coronavirus responsehigh profile items:
| Stay at Home | Reopening | Masks Directive | Indoor Dining (limited) | Religious Services | |
| Abbott (R, TX) |
April 2
|
May 1
|
July 2 | June 22 | May 1 |
| Baker (R, MA) |
March 24
|
May 18
|
May 6 | June 29 | May 25 |
Additional statistics from CDC.gov as of July 15, 2020:
| Texas | Massachusetts | |
| Total Cases | 275,058 | 105,986 |
| Deaths/100K people | 11.6 | 120.8 |
REOPENING HIGHLIGHTS:
| Texas1 | Massachusetts2 | |
| Phase 1 |
Limited retail stores, restaurants, movie theaters, museums, libraries, and malls. Churches remain open.
|
Broken up into three separate weekly openings. Limited religious services |
| Phase II | Restaurants to 50%, child care, personal care, rodeos, bars, youth camps, youth sports, aquariums, zoos, bowling alleys, bingo halls |
Limited retail, restaurants, hotels, and recreational activities. Less urgent preventative health.
|
| Phase III |
All businesses will be able to operate up to 50% capacity. Business that previously at 100% capacity may continue. Restaurants to 75%, bars, amusement parks to 50%.
|
Bars, casinos, gyms, museums, youth sports. No nightclubs or large venues |
| Phase IV | Paused at Phase III on June 25, but businesses can continue to operate at current levels |
Effective upon the development of vaccines and treatment. Full resumption of activity in the “new normal,”
|
| Of note: |
As of July 2, 2020, all Texans to wear a face covering in public spaces, in counties with 20 or more positive COVID-19 cases
|
Maintain social distancing and wear face coverings in public throughout all phases. Over 65 or those with pre-existing health conditions still in stay at home mode. Each phase lasts at least three weeks |
CONCLUSIONS AND OBSERVATIONS:
Texas data shows they used much shorter phase intervals. Phase 1 included many higher risk indoor items like indoor dining, movie theaters, and church services. Additionally, a mandatory mask order was not made until July 3. Did Abbott know his state, with views similar to the President, may be less tolerant of a mask order but put his state at great risk?
In contrast, Massachusetts was more conservative in its response, closing two weeks earlier and re-opening almost three weeks later. In addition, policies around masks, indoor dining, and religious services were much stricter. Did Massachusetts’ history of leaning democratic allow it’s Republican Governor’s slower re-opening pace? Baker’s decisions do seem to meet his goals around containment.
Additional Sources:
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