Assignment 1: Web blog: Go to uga and write a one page summary of the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 with Projections to 2030
The Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO2009) is the annual research paper on future US energy supply, demand and prices through 2030. AEO2009’s projections are; the impacts of extending the PTC for renewable fuels by 10 years; the impacts of uncertainty about construction costs for electric power plants; the relationship between natural gas prices and oil prices; the economics of bringing natural gas from Alaska’s North Slope to U.S. markets; expectations for oil shale production; the economics of plug-in electric hybrids; and trends in world oil prices and production. AEO2009’s main focus is the current global financial crisis and its effect to the price of energy supply in the U.S. Also it concerns the growing emission of greenhouse gas that prevented more use of fossil fuels for generating electricity. AEO2009 pointed out the growing tide to the use of renewable fuels, and promoted the more environmentally-friendly use of energy.
In spite of the ongoing global recession, the appetite for energy in developing countries has no ceiling. More demand on energy will bring long-term increase of the overall price of oil. AEO2009 has analyzed that the world oil price will increase to $130 per barrel in 2030. Although the expected oil price varies from $50 to $200 according to the shift to other energy resources or export restriction policy of OPEC countries, rise in oil price in the future is assumed.
Global climate change has changed the choice of generating electricity. In the modern world, we have multiple ways to generate electricity; thermal power, solar power, nuclear power, wind power etc. Increase in greenhouse gas emission has contingent result to the rise in temperature, and this has caused many kinds of destruction of the natural environment. AEO pointed out the lessening capacity of coal-fired plants. It promotes the shift to natural-gas-fired plants and construction of other renewable power plants. The global climate change has changed the behavior in the electric power sector.
AEO2009 analyzed that the growth rate of renewable fuels is 3.3 percent per year, which is very fast growth compared to the 0.5 percent annual growth in total energy use. AEO2009 also pointed out that the growing needs for biofuels will affect the price of the petroleum-based products. It will raise or lower the price of other fuels according to the amount of biofuels used for electricity generation.
AEO2009 exclusively pointed out the growing energy production from unconventional natural gas resources. US’s domestic production of natural gas has increased by 4.3 trillion feet and this caused decrease in net import. To meet with policies regarding greenhouse gas emissions, more development on the use of natural gas resources is expected, however it is hard for natural gas to follow to the pace of current economic growth. The assumed consumption of natural gas in 2030 is 22.7 trillion cubic feet to 26.0 trillion cubic feet.
AEO2009 expected the shifting mix of unconventional technologies in cars and light trucks. Increasing fuel price will encourage shifting to alternative-fuel and advanced-technology light-duty vehicles. Until now, many forms of unconventional vehicle technologies have been invented such as flex-fuel, hybrid, and diesel vehicles. Sales of light-duty vehicles and advanced-technology vehicles are increasing over years. The research also showed that citizens are choosing more cost-benefiting middle-sized cars rather than sport utility vehicles.
The research concluded with the study on slower growth in overall energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Policies about conservation of the environment and rising energy prices have contributed to slower growth of energy use in the U.S. It also mentioned that the increased use of renewable energy has also slowed the growth of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.
