No matter where you turn, the business world, pursuing an education, or the
emerging fields of science and technology, the downturn of the economy has effected
all aspects of life in the 21st century and the demand for energy is no exception. The
Annual Energy Outlook from 2009 to 2030 focuses on the United States’ energy market
in the future rather than concentrating on the current state of the economy. The Annual
Energy Outlook report puts the spotlight on higher and uncertain world oil prices, a
growing concern about greenhouse gas emissions and its impact on investment
decisions, the increase in the use of renewable fuels and production of unconventional
natural gas, as well as the use of more fuel-efficient vehicles and appliances. The
report also looks at how Federal and State laws and regulations may affect progress in
the future search for more efficient ways to produce and consume energy.
In the report, a reference case is made to show that world oil prices could
potentially reach $130 dollars a barrel in 2030. Other projections estimate the cost to
be between $50 and $200 dollars a barrel. While it is impossible to predict the future,
one of two outcomes is a strong possibility. If the second projection is correct and the
cost of oil was lower than $130 a barrel the companies producing the oil would increase
their production and distribution to the world more than they currently are. However, if
the first prediction is more accurate and the cost of oil was more toward $130 and
higher the major-oil producing countries will want to maintain tighter control over access
to their resources and develop them more slowly leading to a slow down the distribution
to the rest of the world.
Another concern for the future is greenhouse gas emissions or GHG
emissions. GHG emissions are affecting investment decisions especially in the
electricity sector of the energy market. Policies in the United States, because of climate
change, are having negative effects on electric power companies. New regulations
make construction of new plants difficult and create uncertainty about future demand
and costs of labor and fuel. According to the Outlook report 53% of new plants will be
natural gas plants instead of the coal plants. As of November 2008 Washington D.C.
and twenty-eight other states have required that a specific amount of electricity sold in
a state must come from a renewable source. As a result, the share of electricity sales
will grow from 3% in 2007 to 9% in 2030.
Higher fuel prices also affect the automotive industry. Sales of alternative-fuel
and advanced-technology light duty vehicles such as hybrids are expected to increase
from 2% in 2007 to 40% in 2030. When slower demand growth is combined with an
increase use of renewable energy and the new natural gas plants, the amount of
greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced ultimately creating a better Earth for life to
exist on.